Updated: 21 October 2026 | A&A Associate LLC
Between January and September 2026, 37,373 companies joined Dubai Chamber of Commerce, and the chamber’s members exported and re-exported goods worth AED 252 billion. A year earlier, the same nine months brought 53,838 new members. That’s roughly a third fewer. Sultan bin Saeed Al Mansoori, the chairman of Dubai Chambers, said the growth came “despite regional challenges”, and he said it from Shenzhen, where the chamber had just led its largest delegation outside the emirate.
Read quickly, that’s a city losing momentum. Read properly, it’s more mixed than that, and the mixed version is the one worth paying a licence fee on.
This article goes through what’s in the numbers, what the chamber is signalling about where it wants growth, and how that should change the way you set up, if you decide to go ahead. It’s written for the founder who had a Dubai company pencilled in for this winter and is now wondering whether to push it to 2027.
The numbers, side by side
| Jan–Sep 2025 | Jan–Sep 2026 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| New member companies | 53,838 | 37,373 | about -31% |
| Members’ exports and re-exports | about AED 260 billion | AED 252 billion | about -3% |
| Active Chinese member companies | not published for the period | 6,650 (end of September 2026) | more than tripled since 2016 |
The percentages in the last column are our arithmetic from the chamber’s figures.
Two things in that table matter more than the rest.
The first is the gap between the two rows. New memberships dropped by nearly a third, but what members sold abroad barely moved. The companies already in Dubai kept trading at close to last year’s level. If you’re trying to judge whether Dubai still works as a base, that’s a better signal than the intake figure, because it tells you what happened to businesses that were already committed.
The second is the base. 2025 was a record. The chamber reported 4% growth on 2024, and 2024 had been strong too. A 31% fall from a record is still a large fall, but it’s a fall from a peak, not from an average year.
One caveat on what the number counts. Dubai Chamber membership is compulsory for mainland companies and increasingly common for free zone ones, so new memberships track company formation closely, but they aren’t the whole picture. DET licence data and the free zones’ own numbers sit alongside. Treat 37,373 as a strong proxy, not as “every new company in Dubai”.
The year didn’t fall evenly, either. March alone brought 2,709 new members, and the first quarter brought 3,995 new Indian companies. The intake was reasonable early on and slowed later. The chamber hasn’t published a month-by-month breakdown for the rest of the year, so we won’t guess at one.
Why fewer companies joined this year
Two reasons are on the record, and we’ll stick to those.
The first is the one the chairman named: regional challenges. We’ll leave it at the chamber’s own words. Anyone reading this in the Gulf knows the context, and the point of this article is the business reading, not the news.
The second is the base and the normal behaviour of a cautious year. When founders hesitate, the first things to go are the discretionary setups: the second company a group was going to add, the holding entity someone was going to form “at some point”, the licence that was mostly about a visa. Those were a real part of the 2025 record, and they are the first to disappear when people wait.
Against that, look at what the chamber spent October doing. It signed four memoranda with Chinese chambers on 16 October and two more with partners in the Greater Bay Area on 20 October. Its digital economy arm signed two agreements on agentic AI on 19 October. The Dubai Business Forum went ahead in Shenzhen on 14 October, with the chamber’s largest delegation outside the emirate. That isn’t what an economy pulling in its horns looks like. It’s an economy that has decided where its next growth comes from and gone to get it.
Where Dubai says it wants growth
Manufacturing is the loudest signal. Al Mansoori told Khaleej Times that Dubai wants to lift manufacturing’s share of its economy from “9 or 11 percent right now” to about 20 percent, and that it plans to do it by bringing Chinese manufacturers and their expertise to Dubai and building the infrastructure around them. For a founder, that points to industrial licences, light manufacturing in free zones with industrial land, and the supply chain that grows around factories: logistics, component trading, equipment maintenance, packaging. That’s where incentives tend to follow a target like this.
Agentic AI, the digital economy, fintech and the green economy are the other sectors the chairman named. The AI agreements signed on 19 October back that up.
Then there’s the China corridor, which is less a sector than a lane. Non-oil trade between Dubai and China crossed AED 363.5 billion in 2025. Chinese member companies have more than tripled since 2016 to 6,650. DMCC alone grew its Chinese company count by 9.4% in a year, with most of them in energy, engineering and machinery, and technology. The gap in that lane is the service layer: sourcing agents, quality inspection, after-sales and spare parts, Arabic-language distribution for Chinese brands that want GCC customers without building a local team from scratch. Those are businesses a small firm can start.
A reality check, though, from the one month where the chamber published a sector mix. In March 2026, 41.2% of new members were in real estate, renting and business services, 29.5% in trading and services, 15% in construction and 9.3% in social and personal services. Most new companies in Dubai are still ordinary trading and service firms, and there’s nothing wrong with being one. The headline sectors are where the policy attention and the offers go, not where every business has to be. If you want the longer sector list, we covered it in Dubai’s fast-growing business sectors in 2026.
What a slower year changes for you in practice
We’ve set companies up through quieter years before. Roughly the same things change each time.
Free zones compete harder
When fewer licences are being issued, zones chase the ones that are. You’ll see bundled visa quotas, waived office fees for the first year and multi-year discounts. Take them, but read them properly. Ask for the renewal price in year two and three in writing, because a cheap first year and a steep renewal is how most of these packages are built. Get quotes from at least two zones before you sign with either. Our free zone comparison is a reasonable place to start the shortlist, and the free zone formation page covers the process.
Staff and premises are easier to find
Fewer new companies means fewer people competing for the same accountant, the same salesperson and the same flexi-desk in the same tower. It’s a modest advantage, and it won’t make or break a business, but it is one of the few things that gets easier when everyone else pauses.
Banking is still the slow part
A quieter market doesn’t make a bank move faster. If anything, compliance teams are more careful with new companies, and more careful again with certain ownership structures and jurisdictions. Budget four to eight weeks for an account, start the conversation before the licence is issued if your consultant can arrange it, and have your source-of-funds paperwork ready on day one. Our bank account opening page explains what banks actually ask for. If the founder’s residence visa depends on the company, the licence with residence visa route is the one to look at.
Compliance is part of the setup budget now
This is the one that catches people who last set up a company in 2019. Corporate Tax registration is mandatory, bookkeeping from month one is the only sane way to meet it, and e-invoicing is arriving for larger businesses from January 2027. None of this is expensive for a small company, but it’s not zero either, and it should be in the business plan beside the licence fee. Start with our Corporate Tax page and, if your group is anywhere near the AED 50 million revenue line, the e-invoicing guide.
When it makes sense to wait
Sometimes it does. Waiting is the right call if:
- Your business depends on footfall or events in the next six months and you can’t fund a slow start. Nothing in the chamber’s numbers tells you how the next two quarters go for a café or an events company.
- You can’t trade until the bank account is open, and your ownership structure is complicated enough that the account will take months. Paying a licence fee to sit idle is a poor use of money.
- The plan was a licence to hold a visa, with no real trading behind it. Renewal fees and compliance filings make that a weak idea in any year, and a weaker one now.
Going ahead makes sense if your customers are mostly outside the region, if you’re in or around the sectors above, or if you’re replacing an employer’s visa with your own company and would be setting up regardless of the cycle. A slower year is a reasonable time to start a business that was already a good idea. It’s not a reason to start one that wasn’t.
A short checklist before you commit
- Choose mainland or free zone based on where your customers are, not on which package is cheapest this month. If that choice isn’t obvious, free zone vs mainland walks through it.
- Get two written quotes, each showing year-two renewal. Run the numbers through the cost calculator first so you know what a fair quote looks like.
- Check that the activities on the licence cover everything you’ll actually invoice for. Adding one later costs time and money.
- Settle the Corporate Tax position before you pick the structure: Small Business Relief, free zone qualifying status, whether you’ll be in a group.
- Budget for banking time and for a bookkeeper from the first month.
- If you’re joining a group that’s over AED 50 million in revenue, factor in the e-invoicing deadlines, because they apply to the group, not just the new entity.
How A&A Associate can help
A&A Associate LLC sets up companies in Dubai mainland and in the free zones, handles the licence and visa processing, supports the bank account application, and then runs the accounting, VAT and Corporate Tax once the company is trading. We’ve done this through previous slow years, which is mostly useful because we know which zones move on terms and which don’t.
If you’re deciding between going ahead this quarter and waiting until 2027, send us the business plan. We’ll tell you which structure and which zone fit, and what the whole thing costs over three years rather than one.
Frequently asked questions
How many new companies joined Dubai Chamber of Commerce in 2026?
37,373 companies joined between January and September 2026, according to the chairman of Dubai Chambers. In the same period of 2025 the figure was 53,838.
Why did new company registrations in Dubai fall in 2026?
The chamber attributed the slower growth to “regional challenges”. The comparison is also against a record 2025, and cautious years usually see discretionary setups, such as additional group entities and visa-only licences, postponed first.
Is it still a good time to start a business in Dubai?
It depends on the business. Members’ exports held at AED 252 billion, close to last year, and Dubai is actively pushing manufacturing, AI, fintech and the China corridor. If your customers are outside the region or in those sectors, the case is still strong. If you depend on local footfall in the next six months, waiting is reasonable.
Which sectors is Dubai prioritising for new businesses?
Manufacturing, with a stated goal of lifting its share of the economy to about 20%, plus agentic AI, the digital economy, fintech and the green economy. Businesses serving Chinese companies entering the GCC also fit the direction the chamber is taking.
Do all new companies in Dubai have to join Dubai Chamber?
Mainland companies must register with Dubai Chamber of Commerce. Many free zones also require or arrange membership. Because of that, membership numbers are a good guide to company formation, though not a complete count.
How many Chinese companies are registered with Dubai Chamber?
6,650 active Chinese member companies as of the end of September 2026, more than three times the 2016 figure.
Are free zones offering discounts in 2026?
Many are offering bundled visas, waived first-year office fees or multi-year pricing. Terms change often and vary by zone, so get written quotes that include renewal years rather than relying on advertised packages.
How long does it take to open a business bank account in Dubai?
Typically four to eight weeks for a new company, longer for complex ownership structures or certain jurisdictions. Market conditions don’t shorten this; preparation does.
What does Dubai’s 20% manufacturing target mean for small businesses?
Incentives and land tend to follow a target like this. Small firms benefit most in the supply chain around factories: logistics, component trading, maintenance, packaging and quality inspection.
Should I wait until 2027 to set up a company in Dubai?
Wait if your business can’t survive a slow first six months, if banking will take months, or if the licence was mainly for a visa. Go ahead if you sell outside the region, fit the priority sectors, or were setting up regardless of the cycle.
Disclaimer: This article reflects figures published by Dubai Chamber of Commerce and reported in the UAE press as of 21 October 2026. Market conditions, licence fees and free zone offers change. It is general information, not investment, legal or tax advice. Take professional advice on your specific plan before committing.
